Dear Reader,
Welcome to issue 11!
| Grand National... Sorted? |
Earlier in the week, Nick Pullen of Horse Racing Focus, put together a great article explaining why the Grand National isn’t a lottery.
Today I’m giving you my take on this and my picks for the big race.
Nick suggested several key factors that should help us find the winner.
In short, these were:
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Needs Stamina, proven form over 26 furlongs or more and won decent prize money at longer distances.
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Freshness, raced four or less times during the current season.
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Reliable jumping, having been in at least 10 Chases and having no issues with its jumping.
And he went on to suggest that trends point us towards horses that also fit the following criteria:
Using my interpretation of these factors I’ve narrowed the field down to 5 “live” runners.
These are:
Black Apalachi
My Will
Butler’s Cabin
L’ami
Cornish Sett
If you pulled any of those out of the office sweepstake I’d consider yourself lucky.
But looking for one extra filter to apply I considered the large number of winners that seem to come from Ireland.
Looking at the last 10 renewals shows that 6 winners were trained in Ireland and a more recent trend shows 3 out of the last 4 Grand National winners were Irish trained.
That leaves us with just two horses which I’ll be having my couple of quid on:
Black Apalachi and L’ami.
Of the others both My Will and Cornish Sett are trained by Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls.
Now Paul may have a fantastic set of horses and an amazing record in the Gold Cup, but his Grand National record is terrible, 0 from 40 runners.
The other “live” one, Butler’s Cabin, is trained by Jonjo O’Neill and ridden by Tony McCoy (Surely to soon be Sir Tony!).
This would be a fitting winner, both for McCoy who only has this race left to win having been unsuccessful 13 times before, and for O’Neill who tragically lost his best Chaser, Exotic Dancer, yesterday at Aintree.
There will be plenty of money on this one because of the above reasons and the price will reflect that, so it is likely to be a falsely short price.
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I say only have a couple of quid on this race and there’s a reason for that.
I appreciate we all need to let our hair down once in a while and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with a flutter once a year just for fun.
However, we mustn’t forget that this race is the EXACT OPPOSITE, of the type of races I’d look to make money from on a professional level.
Generally speaking I’d be looking for uncompetitive races with around 8-12 runners.
That means small field novice and maiden races, not Grade 3, 40 runner Handicap Chases ridden over unique fences, spanning four and half miles!
Looking at the correct score markets again this week and I think there a decent opportunities in two matches.
Fulham v Liverpool (today)
Dutch 0-1 and 0-2. 1.5% total stake. Odds: 6/1 & 13/2 with Betfred.
Man Utd v Aston Villa (Sunday)
Dutch 2-0 and 3-0. 1.5% total stake. Odds: 6/1 Ladbrokes and 9/1 VCBet.
Last week I correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Holland over Scotland at combined odds of about 6/4.
Until next week,
Kind Regards
Paul Ruffy - Betting Profits Bulletin,
Bettingebooks.com & WinningRacingTips.co.uk
https://twitter.com/PaulRuffy
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