Dear Reader,
Welcome to issue 6!
This Week:
The betting story of the week has to be the Blue Square Premier match between Rushden and Diamonds and Weymouth, which Rushden won 9-0.
In case you missed the story, Weymouth fielded a youth team after their entire 1st team went on strike having not been paid this year. The news of the team selection was not secret, it was in the local newspapers midweek and local supporters of Weymouth lumped on Rushden to beat their own team in the knowledge that the result was a forgone conclusion before kick off.
The first inkling I had that something was going on was when I looked at the Racing Post Sport Odds Compiler’s Naps Table and saw that two of them had napped Rushden at 15/8.
Thinking it was strange that they should both pick out a non-league team as their nap I went on Oddschecker to back Rushden. The price was long gone by this time as it was Saturday morning, (And I hope they don’t try and claim a 15/8 winner!) but around 4/5 was still available.
Thinking I’d missed the boat I didn’t bet.
The result came through and it wasn’t until I heard the story of the players being on strike that I’d realised what had happened and that I’d missed out on a monumental gamble.
You see by Saturday clearly some of the bookmakers knew about this, they had made it their nap, but clearly others weren’t so clued up as although some had stopped betting on the match others were still offering just under even money on the Rushden win. (The price should have been about 1/20).
Its impossible to have fingers in every pie, and get on every gamble, and it has been proven that simply following the money doesn’t work.
You need to know the reasons behind any gamble and make your own mind up.
One way you can become more informed is to check out the Odds Compilers Naps Table in the Racing Post Sport every Saturday. I’ve been monitoring the overall performance and most of the tipsters are in profit for the season. Ooverall the table shows a level stakes profit, which is very hard to achieve especially when only betting on the home/draw/away market.
It is these guys job to get prices right and hence they are experts at finding value prices.
Following these free tips could provide better returns than many a subscription service AND its without the fees. Take last weekend as an example and you’ll see that overall the tips returned about a 2.33pts profit. But, looking deeper shows that two bookmakers tipped Motherwell at 11/2 against Celtic and another two tipped Cardiff at 11/4 against Wolves.
Tthese bets were losers as the matches were drawn. But reading between the lines a lay bet against the favourite or “draw no bet” would have been better propositions and the overall return could have been even better.
| Are you Weymouth in Disguise? |
More important team news was revealed this week when Martin O’Neill told us that he was leaving virtually the whole Aston Villa starting eleven at home and sending a virtual reserve side out to play their second leg against CSKA Moscow.
Looking at the side he’ll be fielding, an already difficult task of beating one of the better sides in Europe now looks almost impossible. Again once this news come out bookmakers were slow to react having already priced up the match based on the 1st leg at Villa Park.
I’ve already advised my Winning Racing Tips members to back both CSKA to qualify and to back them today at 8/11.
CSKA are as short as 8/15 with some bookies to win this match now, but I don’t think that goes far enough. I’d rate them at about 2/5 given the Villa team that will be playing and the fact that Villa are clearly happy to throw away their chances in this competition, in order to concentrate on the Premier League. Therefore, this weeks bet is to back CSKA at 4/6 for a 5% stake. (Apologies in advance if the message arrives too late to bet on this one!)
| Ante-Post is the Way Forward |
Not long ago I frowned upon Ante-post betting, I didn’t see the point in betting and having my funds tied up on a bet that I “might” win in several months time.
That was before I actually started doing it.
Generally speaking not having the patience to follow something over a 12 month period is a key weakness most wannabee professional gamblers have.
And is why I believe that a lot of people overlook these long term markets.
This is a shame as what I have found out is that there is incredible value in these markets.
What really opened my eyes to the whole ante-post idea was the Insider service from Oxon Press.
This is another service from the same stable as Bet Bank Alerts that I mentioned to you a few weeks back. After a few months following the Insider service I’m nicely in profit and already have some tasty looking bets in the book.
Such as:
Wales to win the Six Nations at 3/1 (now Evens)
Manchester Utd to win the Premier League at 2/1 (already traded out for profit)
Everton to win the FA Cup at 12/1 (now 6/1)
Ade Gardner to be top Try Scorer in the Super League at 14/1 (now 9/2)
I’ve already picked up tasty wins on:
New Zealand to win the Rugby League World Cup at 8/1.
Djokovic to win the Masters Tennis at 11/2.
That’s just a snapshot of what you can expect. I would certainly not hesitate to recommend this service to you.
There’s no risk whatsoever as you can trial the service free of charge for 28 days.
If you then decide sign up you still have another 3 whole months to decide if the service is for you and can ask for a full refund if not entirely satisfied.
Those are pretty fair terms I think you’ll agree.
Join now here.
Last weeks football bets produced the first losing week in terms of what I've advised in the newsletter. My each way bets have been very frustrating for all - yesterday we had two horses finish 2nd having looked like winning their races. One of which traded at 1.01 on Betfair in-running!
I know that this can happen sometimes though and keeping an eye on the longer term will see us backing winners again soon enough.
Talking of the longer term, I've just finished reviewing my own portfolio performance for the last 12 months and made plans for the next. Something I'll be sharing with you in a future newsletter.
Kind Regards
Paul Ruffy - Betting Profits Bulletin,
Bettingebooks.com & WinningRacingTips.co.uk
https://twitter.com/PaulRuffy
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